Return risk assessment evaluates conditions the appellant would face on return to their country of origin. This engages Article 3 ECHR in deportation and removal cases, distinct from Refugee Convention persecution analysis in asylum appeals. Country experts assess security risk, economic subsistence, social networks, state hostility to returnees, and whether conditions reach the Article 3 threshold.
Deportation cases with criminal convictions, failed asylum seeker profiles, and voluntary return refusals each require distinct analytical frameworks. Country-specific tests apply: the MOJ diaspora test for Somalia; destitution and Article 3 analysis for failed asylum seekers returned to countries without family support; political risk for those whose asylum claims have been publicised.
Return risk experts work alongside human rights experts where treaty standards are in dispute. Both must maintain independence under CPR Part 35. The country expert addresses factual conditions on return; the human rights expert addresses how those conditions engage ECHR protections.